The domestic market is declining and narrowing with intelligence and exports becoming highlights
2024 is undoubtedly a year of great ups and downs for the agricultural machinery industry. At the beginning of the year, everyone was full of expectations for the industry's recovery, but many companies not only did not wait for the industry's recovery, but also faced even greater pressure. In the middle of the year, a new round of three-year agricultural machinery subsidy policy was launched, effectively conveying the policy's tilt signal towards high-end and intelligent agricultural machinery; Major enterprises are actively following up and launching high-end and intelligent agricultural machinery to seize the new market high ground. At the end of the year, although the domestic subsidized consumer market has experienced a "double consecutive decline", the overseas market has reached a new high. Based on the performance of the agricultural machinery market this year, Agricultural Machinery 360 website has summarized 5 major characteristics and changes of the agricultural machinery market:1、 The consumption scale of agricultural machinery subsidies will further decline in 2024
In 2024, the consumption scale of agricultural machinery subsidies in China will decline again on the basis of 2023. As of January 10, 2025, the public announcement data of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies shows that in 2024, 2.7077 million sets of various agricultural machinery will be sold, and it is expected to achieve agricultural machinery subsidy consumption of 66.578 billion yuan. Publicly announced sales have decreased by 9.31% compared to 2023, and sales have decreased by 19.26%; Sales have decreased by 16.99% compared to 2022, and sales have decreased by 45.61%.
Although the publicly announced data on agricultural machinery purchase subsidies has a certain lag, and the actual consumption scale of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies in 2024 will be greater than the 66.578 billion yuan mentioned above, there is no doubt that the overall agricultural machinery subsidy consumption market in 2024 will continue to decline on the basis of the decline in 2023, and the market's "two consecutive declines" have become a foregone conclusion.

2、 The main positions of power machinery and harvesting machinery still exist, but their market share has declined
From the perspective of subsidy consumption for agricultural machinery, the only two categories with annual subsidy sales exceeding 10 billion yuan are power machinery and harvesting machinery. Next are planting and fertilizing machinery and tillage machinery, with subsidy consumption exceeding 5 billion yuan in the past five years, but unable to exceed 9 billion yuan.
In terms of sales proportion, power machinery has achieved a subsidy sales of 24.347 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 36.57% of the agricultural machinery subsidy consumption market, which is 5 percentage points higher than 2023. However, the market proportion in 2023 and 2024 is lower than that in 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2024, the subsidy sales of harvesting machinery reached 20.765 billion yuan, accounting for 31.19% of the agricultural machinery subsidy consumption market, which is 3 percentage points lower than in 2023.
Power machinery and harvesting machinery, as the main products supporting the agricultural machinery market for so many years, although their market share is still at an "inorganic comparable" level, their combined market share has a downward trend: from 2020 to 2022, their combined market share was over 73%, in 2023, their combined market share was 65.78%, and in 2024, their current market share is 67.76%, both of which have not exceeded 70%.
Relatively speaking, the market share of planting and fertilizing machinery and tillage machinery has increased. The subsidy consumption scale for post harvest processing machinery and agricultural product initial processing machinery, although relatively small, also shows an increasing trend in market share. From a policy perspective, this is the result of the continuous promotion of mechanization throughout the entire agricultural production process. From a market perspective, power machinery and harvesting machinery belong to the traditional bulk agricultural machinery field, and the market has become relatively saturated. The market size is mainly driven by stock updates; In the segmented fields of planting and fertilization machinery, field management machinery, etc., they are all in the stage of rapid product iteration and upgrading. There is both a demand for stock updates and new market demand brought about by product upgrades, such as upgrading from ordinary seeders to precision and high-performance seeders; The post harvest processing and initial processing of agricultural products are still areas of weakness, and there is still a lot of room for improvement.
3、 Consumption scale of agricultural machinery subsidies in multiple regions rises against the trend
From the perspective of regional agricultural machinery subsidy consumption scale, seven regions have consistently ranked in the top ten since 2020: Henan Province, Shandong Province, Inner Mongolia, Hebei Province, Heilongjiang Province, Jiangsu Province, and Anhui Province.
In 2020, Heilongjiang Province ranked first in regional sales with a consumption scale of 14.541 billion yuan in agricultural machinery subsidies. In 2021, Henan Province replaced Heilongjiang Province as the regional agricultural machinery sales champion. According to the public announcement data of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies as of January 10, 2025, the sales revenue of agricultural machinery subsidies in Henan Province in 2024 was 5.307 billion yuan, which has been the regional sales champion for four consecutive years.
Compared with 2023, the overall consumption market for agricultural machinery subsidies has decreased by nearly 15.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.26%. However, some regions have shown an upward trend against the trend. Looking at the top ten regions, Shandong Province achieved agricultural machinery subsidy sales of 5.244 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 11.43% year-on-year; Hebei Province achieved subsidy sales of 4.827 billion yuan, an increase of 457 million yuan from the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 10.47%; Hubei Province achieved subsidy sales of 3.378 billion yuan, an increase of 4.55% year-on-year; Hunan Province achieved sales of 2.916 billion yuan, an increase of 12.79% year-on-year; Jiangxi Province has achieved a subsidy sales of 2.559 billion yuan for agricultural machinery, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year.
4、 2024, the first year of policy promotion for the intelligent development of agricultural machinery
In documents issued by multiple national ministries and high-level agricultural conferences, it is explicitly mentioned to make good use of existing policies, form policy synergy, and increase support for high-end intelligent agricultural machinery and equipment. On September 13, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the General Office of the Ministry of Finance officially released the "List of the Highest Central Financial Subsidies for General Agricultural Machinery in China from 2024 to 2026", which for the first time clearly designated the power shift intelligent control tractor as a separate category and included it in the subsidy scope, with a maximum purchase subsidy of 74700 yuan. The subsidy standard is 36100 yuan higher than traditional models in the same horsepower range, and the policy tilt is significant.
In addition to providing separate subsidies for intelligent control tractors, a separate subsidy is also provided for high-performance electric drive single grain (precision) seeders, which require pneumatic seeders, electric drive control seeders, and seeding operation monitoring terminals. The maximum subsidy standard for industries 4-5 is 19300 yuan, the maximum subsidy for industries 6-10 is 32700 yuan, and the maximum subsidy for industries 11 and above is 51600 yuan. The subsidy standard is also significantly higher than that of ordinary models.
Under the guidance of national policies, major enterprises have successively launched high-end and intelligent agricultural machinery products. China Yituo Dongfanghong has launched the independently developed and domestically produced LW4504 tractor with maximum power continuously variable transmission. Weichai Lovol showcased an 18 row electric drive precision seeder at the agricultural machinery autumn meeting, which uses an electric drive air suction seeder with good uniformity of plant spacing. It also has intelligent monitoring system functions such as missed sowing, blocked sowing, grain count statistics, and operation area statistics, which can further improve the quality of operations. The intelligent rice transplanter equipped with the "Huatian" intelligent driving system by Zoomlion has been mass-produced and shipped to users across the country.
5、 Overseas influence expands, agricultural machinery exports reignite trend
In 2024, China's agricultural machinery exports reached a new high, with exports exceeding 50.9 billion yuan from January to November, which is 8.4% higher than last year's total exports. The export of agricultural machinery has become an important force driving the development of the agricultural machinery industry.
The export value of agricultural machinery has reached a new high, which is due to the comprehensive influence of multiple factors. From a national macro perspective, this is a continuation of the long-term positive trend; From a mid-level perspective in the industry, the demand for domestic agricultural machinery market is still hovering at a low point, forcing enterprises to "go global and seek development". At present, there is a trend of increasing brand concentration in many segmented fields of bulk agricultural machinery products. Under the strong attack of leading enterprises in the industry, not only are small and medium-sized enterprises experiencing annual market share decline in China, but they are also actively seeking development in overseas markets.